Saturday, March 7, 2015

阅读报告 - 第一篇 《Berkshire Hathaway 2014 Annual Report》

题外话:基于工作繁忙,小弟上一篇的文章已经是三个月前的事了。没办法啊,功夫还不到家,一篇公司的分析就要花至少两个星期的时间撰写了。(好啦。。。我承认其实我是懒惰 >.< )

返回正题,受到 Ali阿尧的影响,我想写一些'比较'简短的阅读报告。一方面可以记录在书本或报告里学到的知识。另一方面也好记录我阅读过的书籍。

首先,奉行价值投资者都知道在股票投资的世界,Warren Buffett 可说是数一数二的神级投资者。所以大家每一年都会很期待和阅读 Warren Buffett 撰写的 Berkshire常年报告。




这里会转载一些报告里的金句和我小小的意见或感想。

1. "Market Price have their limitations in the short term. Monthly or yearly movement of stocks are often erratic. Overtime, stock price and intrinsic value almost invariably converge" 

很多股票的价格在短期内被低估或被有心人士炒高。但长期来说,股票的价格和它内在的价值是一样的。说易行难,因为要推算一个股票的内在价值有太多无法计算的因素。但我们可以做到的是买在低价,确保有足够的安全边际, 那么亏钱的几率就减低了。

2. "Of course, a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if it is bought for too high a price"

再好的股票或公司,如果买入的价格太高,赚钱几率不止会降低而且赚的幅度也不高。基本上,股票在买入时,已经决定了会赚钱或亏钱。

3. “My experience in business helps me as an investor and that my investment experience has made me a better businessman"

想要成为一个好的投资者,就要学习怎么样去做生意。投资就是合股做生意,虽然不需要我们亲自去经营,但是如果我们会分析公司财报,我们就能知道公司的营运状况。最重要是知道什么生意有利可图,什么是高度竞争行业、什么是夕阳行业。

4. "In world of business, bad news often surfaces serially. You see a cockroach in kitchen; as days go by, you meet his relatives"

如果一间公司爆出了什么丑闻,例如迟交报告或做假账等等。那么一定还有不少负面的消息陆续涌出来。就好像如果在厨房看到一只蟑螂,不采取行动,很快就会繁殖到一群蟑螂出来。所以我们要当机立断,当断不断,必受其乱。

5. “Forget what you know about buying fair business at wonderful prices; instead, buy wonderful business at fair prices” Charlie Munger



Berkshire Hathaway 今天能够那么成功,最大的功臣是Warren Buffett 的好拍档, Charlie Munger。 此君在投资策略和大方向上影响了Warren Buffett 后来的投资。Warren 从投资教父 Benjamin Graham 的‘Cigar butt investing' 投资法,转去长期投资一些有价值、有品牌、有堡垒而且生产的产品是大众永远需要的公司。

6. "Frequently, the best decision is to do nothing. But sitting tight is seldom recommended by Wall Street (Don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut)"

长期投资是致富的不二法门。但要做到并不简单,因为很考验耐心而且要不受外界的影响,尤其是要忍受analyst 或broker不停地叫买叫卖 和市场上的真假消息。

7. “Cash is to a business as Oxygen to an individual; never thought about when it is present, the only thing in mind when it is absent"

没有钱或借贷无数的公司,只要遇到经济风暴就会倒闭。反而一间公司如果有充裕的现金,那么就算遇到任何风暴,也能够熬得过去。投资前一定要分析公司的财务状况,确保公司遇上困难时还能够生存。

8. "The unconventional, but inescapable, conclusion to be drawn from the past 50 years is that it has been far safer to invest in a diversified collection of American businesses, than to invest in bond or treasuries"

分散投资在不同的公司和领域会比投资在固定利率的债劵或放在银行,安全得多。因为通货膨胀会导致我们的钱贬值。

9."For great majority of investors, who can and should invest with a multi-decade horizon, quotational declines are unimportant. Their focus should remain fixed on attaining significant gains in purchasing power over their investing lifetime.




对于一个长期(这里的长期是指几十年 =_=)投资者来说,股票的价格偶尔下跌,并不重要。最重要的是要怎么投资,让自己的购买能力在未来能有显著的提升。

10."Buffett's decision to limit his activities to a few kinds and to maximize his attention to them, and to keep doing it for 50 years, was a lollapolooza. Buffett succeeded for the same reason Roger Federer became good at tennis"

Warren Buffett 的成功很大程度归功于他五十年来不变地重复做着他最擅长的东西。学习投资应该是一门终身学问。学然后知不足,只要不停地学习,我们就有机会成功。

11. “Though practically all days are relatively uneventful, tomorrow is always uncertain. And if you can't predict what tomorrow will bring, you must be prepared for whatever it does".

就因为我们不知道明天会发生什么事情,我们需要未雨绸缪,在冬天来临之前,就要努力囤粮。投资能够让我们在未来过上更好的日子,所以我们一定要长期投资。

12. “Investor can by their own behavior, make stock ownership highly risky by active trading, attempts to "time" market", inadequate diversification, payment of high and unnecessary fees to manager and advisor, and use borrowed money. Borrowed money has no place in investor's tool kit (anything can happen anytime in markets).

这一段对于散户来说是很好的警惕。只要我们不过度买卖、不短期操作股票、不去预测市场走向、不付过高和没必要的费用、不用Margin、和分散投资,那投资股票的风险将会大幅度降低。最重要的是永远不要借钱来投资股票,因为很可能明天就是熊市或股灾了 。


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希望这篇文章能引起你的兴趣去阅读Berkshire历年来的常年报告。Warren Buffet 独树一帜的写作手法、风趣的比喻和他对于生意上的精辟见解,必定能让你学到很多投资和经营生意上的学问。他的常年报告是每个价值投资者必读的。



资料来源:

  1. Berkshire Hathaway 2014 Annual Report - http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2014ar/2014ar.pdf

5 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. 谢谢你,写作的动力到头来还是败给了懒惰的基因啊。。。 XD

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